An analysis of 16,014 interconnection projects across four US Independent System Operators — linking queue data with state-level regulatory intelligence to identify where capacity will actually reach commercial operation, and where it will not.
The interconnection queue is the most widely cited data set in US power-sector capital allocation — and the most widely misread. It measures demand to build, not probability of completion. In PJM, the largest grid operator, 10.9% of proposed capacity has reached commercial operation; withdrawal rates run from 63% to 83% across the four ISOs studied.
Beyond the Queue maps the missing variable. It links queue positions to six dimensions of state-level regulatory environment — legislative direction, permitting timelines, utility commission posture, zoning, environmental constraints, legal-challenge history — to produce a composite Regulatory Risk Score by state.
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